Missing Maize Prices and Constant Increase of Beef Prices, 2026 Q1 Food Prices Analysis
- Center for Indonesian Policy Studies
- 2 days ago
- 3 min read
Figure 1. Maize Price Data (January 2025 - March 2026)
(Guidance: Point out the cursor and click on the graph to see price details)
Commodity Highlight 1: Maize Prices and Data Availability
In the third quarter of 2025, the Indonesian government raised the Government Purchase Price (HPP) for maize to IDR 5,500/kg from IDR 4,500/kg. The increase in the HPP is reflected in the upward price trend at the producer level (Figure 1). On a year-on-year basis, maize prices have consistently risen, as evidenced by the Wholesale Price Index (IHPB) data and the highest spike in feed prices at the farmer level, reaching IDR 7,049/kg in January 2026. This, in turn, has contributed to rising chicken prices.
However, producer-level maize price data released by the National Food Agency (Bapanas) have been unavailable since the first quarter of 2026. Although the upward price trend can be assumed to continue, wholesale and consumer prices released by the Ministry of Trade and Bapanas have also been unavailable since the first quarter of 2025. This data unavailability makes it difficult for us, as independent analysts, to examine market dynamics and commodity prices and to provide necessary policy recommendations and market actions. Maintaining the transparency and accessibility of the food data system for observers, the private sector, and the public remains essential. Such openness serves as a cornerstone for good governance, fostering public trust and supporting active participation in a democratic society.
Figure 2. Beef Price Data (January 2025 - March 2026)
(Guidance: Point out the cursor and click on the graph to see price details)
Commodity Highlight 1: Maize Prices and Data Availability
Harga daging sapi terus menunjukkan tren kenaikan yang signifikan, mencapai rekor tertinggi dalam setidaknya lima tahun terakhir pada kuartal I tahun 2026. Per Maret 2026, harga di tingkat produsen mencapai Rp137.950/kg, meningkat 13,6% secara tahunan (yoy) dan 25,4% dibandingkan Maret 2021. Sementara itu, harga di tingkat konsumen mencapai Rp148.350/kg, naik 8,2% yoy dan 20,4% dibandingkan Maret 2021. Kenaikan harga ini terjadi meskipun pemerintah telah menetapkan Harga Acuan Pembelian dan Harga Acuan Penjualan melalui Peraturan Badan Pangan Nasional No.12/2024. Harga di tingkat produsen sudah hampir menyentuh batas atas HAP (sekitar Rp130.000/kg–Rp140.000/kg), yang kemudian mendorong harga konsumen mendekati Rp150.000/kg. Kebijakan ini pada akhirnya mengindikasikan bahwa regulasi terkait intervensi harga tidak efektif.
Kenaikan harga daging sapi disebabkan oleh beberapa faktor utama, di samping intervensi harga yang tidak efektif. Keterbatasan pasokan domestik di tengah tingginya permintaan menjadi pendorong utama. Upaya-upaya merespons tingginya permintaan daging sapi dengan peningkatan suplai pun terhambat oleh Neraca Komoditas yang membatasi kuota impor untuk pelaku swasta sebesar 30.000 ton pada tahun 2026, atau menurun 83% dari total kuota pada tahun 2025. Melemahnya kurs rupiah, tingginya struktur biaya logistik untuk pakan di beberapa negara produsen utama dunia, hingga lonjakan permintaan hari raya turut menjadi faktor penyebab naiknya harga daging sapi di Indonesia. Tren harga ini menunjukkan perlunya kebijakan jangka panjang pada industri daging sapi, meliputi perbaikan infrastruktur, logistik untuk menekan biaya, serta perubahan mendasar pada pendekatan intervensi harga dan hambatan kuota yang selama ini gagal menjaga daya saing produsen dan daya beli konsumen.
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