Meat Prices Rise Ahead of Ramadan: Import Quota Efficiency Under Scrutiny - Food Monitor Updates Q1 2025

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Beef prices have shown an increasing trend in the first quarter of 2025 (January to March). The rising demand during Ramadan and the delayed realization of imports might have contributed to this increase.

Changes in consumption patterns during Ramadan prompt rising prices.

By year-on-year comparison, beef prices in March 2025 have increased by 1.93%. This number is higher than the y-o-y increase in January (0.11%) and February 2025 (0.59%). The same pattern also occurs in the month-to-month price change, where the highest price rise recorded was 1.33% in March. This price rise was likely caused by the increased demand for beef during the Ramadan and Idul Fitri seasons, which lasted throughout March 2025.

Delayed import hinders beef supply.

The rise in beef prices was also attributed to the tardy import realization. The import quota was initially set at 180,000 tonnes on Monday, December 9, 2024, with a quota of 100,000 tonnes for private enterprises and 80,000 tonnes for State-Owned Enterprises (SOE). However, the quota for private entities was cut to 80,000 tonnes on February 5, 2025. These changes induced risks on the supply stream, considering that the private sector is relatively more capable of swiftly adapting to market and distribution dynamics. Moreover, the Indonesian National Meat Processors Association (Asosiasi Pengusaha dan Pengolahan Daging Indonesia or APPDI) stated that the industry would likely incur considerable losses due to supply challenges.

Efficient import mechanisms are crucial to maintain price stability.

The National Food Agency (BAPANAS) has stated that it will reset the import quota back to 100,000 tonnes for private enterprises after this quota reaches 50% realisation. This statement indicates the inefficiency and uncertainty in our beef import policies. The lack of clear mechanisms and transparency in the quota adjustment process will affect prices and lessen the competitiveness of the meat industry. Additionally, the lengthy process in determining import quotas and the SOE supremacy without open market competition will hinder a fair and competitive distribution.

If beef import policies are more transparent and accommodating for the private sector, market responsiveness will increase, and prices will remain stable. Furthermore, the domestic meat processing industry is expected to grow following the increased availability of raw materials.

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